Breaking News

Why Robert Mugabe may win 2013 elections

by Blessing-Miles Tendi I guardian.co.uk,
23 January 2013 | 6156 Views
Zimbabwe's warring political leaders have finally agreed on a compromise constitution, starting a process that is expected to end in elections later this year.

A referendum on the new constitution has long been a key prerequisite for staging a vote, although full details of the compromise are yet to be made public. The referendum date is set to be announced soon and elections will follow thereafter.

But instead of a lively public interest in the winding up of the constitution making process and the prospect of elections, Harare is passive. The political bickering and power games that have characterised constitution-making since 2009 have engendered passivity towards national political processes.

Following the outcome of a similar situation in Kenya, some analysts are even skeptical that elections will take place this year. Kenyan political parties, like their Zimbabwean counterparts, entered a power-sharing government after a violent and disputed election in 2007. Just as in Zimbabwe, the completion of constitutional reform before fresh elections was seen as important. Kenya's drafting of a new constitution proceeded rapidly and with some consensus - in sharp contrast to Zimbabwe. However the aligning of old laws with the new Kenyan constitution was hampered by bickering politicians, taking two years to complete and forcing delay of elections until March 2013.

Political analyst Dr Ibbo Mandaza of Sapes Trust believes that enduring political differences between Zimbabwe's major parties and the protracted practicalities of harmonising old laws with the new constitution will result in a repeat of the Kenyan scenario, thereby ruling out elections in 2013 in Zimbabwe - which will only intensify apathy.

There is also growing disaffection in urban areas towards Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). This will harm the MDC's chances, particularly because urban constituencies are its traditional electoral stronghold. Tsvangirai, who rose to prominence in the 1990s as secretary general of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Union, successfully challenged Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF government on a range of social and economic policies that undermined urban labour. But since Tsvangirai joined Mugabe in a power-sharing government in 2009, his party's relations with urban workers have slowly broken down.

A good example of this is civil servants' long-running, futile negotiations with the public service ministry, which is controlled by the MDC, over wages and improved working conditions. While a 5% pay increase promised in 2012 has failed to materialise, MDC ministers have lobbied for a US$21,000 each housing allowance from the state treasury. One MDC cabinet member, who asked not to be named, said: "We have lost our virgin*ty, our innocence, our high moral ground. At the last cabinet meeting of (18 December) 2012 MDC ministers put up a huge fight for an unwarranted US$21 000 housing allowance per cabinet member. Tendai Biti (the finance minister) was saying, how do we justify this given that we are not going to increase civil servants' salaries? My colleagues in the MDC came up with clever ideas for hiding the housing allowance so the public will not know. What was shocking is that only one Zanu-PF minister spoke forcefully for the allowance. The real pressure came from my people. They were passionate. I sat there thinking if only the public out there knew this."

A different MDC member, the constitutional affairs minister. Eric Matinenga, has not been afraid to voice his disaffection publicly. Last year Matinenga announced that he would not run for re-election in his Buhera West constituency after serving a single term. In the cool of his office in Harare's Compensation House, Matinenga said: "When I made a decision to run for political office in 2008 I already had a plan for what I was going to do. I was going to serve only one term as MP and go back to being an advocate. The corruption and hunger for power I have seen on both sides of government (Zanu-PF and the MDC) has not made me want to go back on my original principle to serve one term. People go into politics to make money. It is not about public service. I was naive."




Voter turnout in elections has declined steadily in the last decade. The current passivity and disaffection of urban voters points to continued decline in voter participation in forthcoming elections. Low urban voter turnout will undermine the MDC's chances in elections, particularly in the presidential vote. Mugabe has secured the rural vote in the past because of co-opted traditional leaders who marshal their respective communities in support of his candidature, paramilitary control of the country side, violence and the party's land redistribution programme in the countryside. These factors preclude apathy and are the preserve of Zanu-PF. The MDC's increasing loss of touch with its urban support base, therefore, does not bode well for Tsvangirai ahead of elections.

-------------------
Blessing-Miles Tendi is author of Making History in Mugabe's Zimbabwe: Politics, Intellectuals and the Media and a politics lecturer at the Oxford University's Department of International Development

Elections Mugabe


Disclaimer:
All articles and letters published on Bulawayo24 have been independently written by members of Bulawayo24's community. The views of users published on Bulawayo24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Bulawayo24. Bulawayo24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.

Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Could there be war if Grace Mugabe becomes President?

Yes
72.14%
No
10.71%
Who cares?
17.14%
140

Comments

Latest Classifieds (Click Here For More)

News Updates

Email:

Latest News

Widow stones in-laws at suicide wake - ANTI-RIOT police had to be call...

by Auxilia Katongomara | 21 October 2014 | 39 Views

Opposition parties rallies behind Joice Mujuru - FUNCTIONARIES from op...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 139 Views

Tsvangirai set to impose Sikhala - MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai yest...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 223 Views

Chamisa confronts Tsvangirai - MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai on Satur...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 306 Views

Wife saves boyfriend's number as 'malume' - A 34-YEAR-OLD man allegedl...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 484 Views

Moyo sucked into Grace Mugabe rally case - BULAWAYO Provincial Affairs...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 545 Views

Mujuru to be forced to step down? - TENSIONS are rising in Zanu-PF as ...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 569 Views

Doctors to go on strike - THE Zimbabwe Hospital Doctors' Association (...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 213 Views

23 Namibians nabbed over fake Zimbabwean qualifications - WINDHOEK - T...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 307 Views

Ambrose Mutinhiri defies Grace Mugabe - ONE of the candidates for the ...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 498 Views

MDC founding member calls Grace Mugabe a liar - FOUNDING MDC member an...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 305 Views

MDC-T accident victims in stable condition - MDC-T members who were in...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 202 Views

Voice call tariffs to be reduced - Voice calls will from December be r...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 192 Views

Gukurahundi victim reburied - THE remains of Nehemiah Nkala, a Gukurah...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 237 Views

Villagers to petition Mugabe - Ndlovu villagers, whose area is located...

by Staff reporter | 21 October 2014 | 230 Views

Zimbabwe, Zambia to launch pilot uni-visa - The government will launch...

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 2323 Views

MDC-T youths bay for suspended Hlalo's blood - Members of the MDC-T Bu...

by Makhosi Sibanda | 20 October 2014 | 2001 Views

Another NRZ train derails - A Victoria Falls-bound National Railways o...

by Lesley Moyo | 20 October 2014 | 2132 Views

Grade 7 boy hangs himself on burglar bar - A Grade 7 boy at Senzangakh...

by Staff Reporter | 20 October 2014 | 3144 Views

Ambassador Nyamupinga dies at 65 - A career diplomat who served in Aus...

by Staff Reporter | 20 October 2014 | 2996 Views

Econet buys Telecel - Econet Wireless Global (EWG) has acquired the a...

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 4674 Views

Man jailed for battering his 'loose' sisters

by Court reporter | 20 October 2014 | 2586 Views

'Hungry' man in trouble for robbing Good Samaritan - A CHITUNGWIZA m...

by Staff Reporter | 20 October 2014 | 2114 Views

South Africa extends ZSP appointment dates deadline! - The new deadli...

by ZIM-ID (SA) | 20 October 2014 | 4745 Views

Mother of six 'shocked' to death after getting BCC bill

by Staff Reporter | 20 October 2014 | 5460 Views

7 years behind bars for reckless kombi driver

by Staff Reporter | 20 October 2014 | 2853 Views

5 highway patrol cops in soup - Five National Highway Patrol cops have...

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 4334 Views

Man in trouble for selling crocodile eggs

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 3126 Views

Grace Mugabe lashes at Ray Kaukonde - Video - Robert Mugabe's wife Gra...

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 3834 Views

Entertainment

Zim representative in the Big Brother Africa survives eviction - Zimba...

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 1526 Views

Grace Mugabe's political comedy takes ZTV hostage - For the past two w...

by Staff reporter | 20 October 2014 | 3536 Views

Oliver Mtukudzi to deliver lecture at Musica 2014 - Zimbabwe's interna...

by Staff reporter | 19 October 2014 | 1002 Views

Gezha maoko - Ladybee (Official Video)

by Staff Reporter | 19 October 2014 | 1666 Views

Matebeleland Music & Arts Festival - Sivala umnyaka ngengoma lapho sit...

by Staff Reporter | 17 October 2014 | 1479 Views

Obediah Matulana releases Christmas DVD - Bulawayo-based musician Obed...

by Staff reporter | 16 October 2014 | 1637 Views

Grace Mugabe honoured in song - Dancehall outfit Final Warning has rel...

by Tawanda Marwizi | 15 October 2014 | 2082 Views

US firm makes money off Zimbabwe concept - United States transport sh...

by Staff reporter | 14 October 2014 | 2654 Views
iBlog

Positions To Make Female Orgasm Easier During Intercourse

some women are fortunate enough to be able to climax easily, and in almost any sexual position. the majority of women though, sometimes find it difficult to orgasm especially when they are with a partner. sometimes this difficulty is just a result ... Read More
adoniadennis 12 May 2014 ago

Yet Another Wave Of Digital Destruction Is Coming

Malware fever keeps on raging, taking sophisticated forms to wreak havoc around the worldwide web. even if your system is guarded thoroughly, you are still skating on thin ice, so you should better keep your eyes open and think twice before you make ... Read More
SecNews 02 March 2014 ago