Breaking News

Why Robert Mugabe may win 2013 elections

by Blessing-Miles Tendi I guardian.co.uk,
23 January 2013 | 6121 Views
Zimbabwe's warring political leaders have finally agreed on a compromise constitution, starting a process that is expected to end in elections later this year.

A referendum on the new constitution has long been a key prerequisite for staging a vote, although full details of the compromise are yet to be made public. The referendum date is set to be announced soon and elections will follow thereafter.

But instead of a lively public interest in the winding up of the constitution making process and the prospect of elections, Harare is passive. The political bickering and power games that have characterised constitution-making since 2009 have engendered passivity towards national political processes.

Following the outcome of a similar situation in Kenya, some analysts are even skeptical that elections will take place this year. Kenyan political parties, like their Zimbabwean counterparts, entered a power-sharing government after a violent and disputed election in 2007. Just as in Zimbabwe, the completion of constitutional reform before fresh elections was seen as important. Kenya's drafting of a new constitution proceeded rapidly and with some consensus - in sharp contrast to Zimbabwe. However the aligning of old laws with the new Kenyan constitution was hampered by bickering politicians, taking two years to complete and forcing delay of elections until March 2013.

Political analyst Dr Ibbo Mandaza of Sapes Trust believes that enduring political differences between Zimbabwe's major parties and the protracted practicalities of harmonising old laws with the new constitution will result in a repeat of the Kenyan scenario, thereby ruling out elections in 2013 in Zimbabwe - which will only intensify apathy.

There is also growing disaffection in urban areas towards Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). This will harm the MDC's chances, particularly because urban constituencies are its traditional electoral stronghold. Tsvangirai, who rose to prominence in the 1990s as secretary general of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Union, successfully challenged Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF government on a range of social and economic policies that undermined urban labour. But since Tsvangirai joined Mugabe in a power-sharing government in 2009, his party's relations with urban workers have slowly broken down.

A good example of this is civil servants' long-running, futile negotiations with the public service ministry, which is controlled by the MDC, over wages and improved working conditions. While a 5% pay increase promised in 2012 has failed to materialise, MDC ministers have lobbied for a US$21,000 each housing allowance from the state treasury. One MDC cabinet member, who asked not to be named, said: "We have lost our virgin*ty, our innocence, our high moral ground. At the last cabinet meeting of (18 December) 2012 MDC ministers put up a huge fight for an unwarranted US$21 000 housing allowance per cabinet member. Tendai Biti (the finance minister) was saying, how do we justify this given that we are not going to increase civil servants' salaries? My colleagues in the MDC came up with clever ideas for hiding the housing allowance so the public will not know. What was shocking is that only one Zanu-PF minister spoke forcefully for the allowance. The real pressure came from my people. They were passionate. I sat there thinking if only the public out there knew this."

A different MDC member, the constitutional affairs minister. Eric Matinenga, has not been afraid to voice his disaffection publicly. Last year Matinenga announced that he would not run for re-election in his Buhera West constituency after serving a single term. In the cool of his office in Harare's Compensation House, Matinenga said: "When I made a decision to run for political office in 2008 I already had a plan for what I was going to do. I was going to serve only one term as MP and go back to being an advocate. The corruption and hunger for power I have seen on both sides of government (Zanu-PF and the MDC) has not made me want to go back on my original principle to serve one term. People go into politics to make money. It is not about public service. I was naive."




Voter turnout in elections has declined steadily in the last decade. The current passivity and disaffection of urban voters points to continued decline in voter participation in forthcoming elections. Low urban voter turnout will undermine the MDC's chances in elections, particularly in the presidential vote. Mugabe has secured the rural vote in the past because of co-opted traditional leaders who marshal their respective communities in support of his candidature, paramilitary control of the country side, violence and the party's land redistribution programme in the countryside. These factors preclude apathy and are the preserve of Zanu-PF. The MDC's increasing loss of touch with its urban support base, therefore, does not bode well for Tsvangirai ahead of elections.

-------------------
Blessing-Miles Tendi is author of Making History in Mugabe's Zimbabwe: Politics, Intellectuals and the Media and a politics lecturer at the Oxford University's Department of International Development

Elections Mugabe


Disclaimer:
All articles and letters published on Bulawayo24 have been independently written by members of Bulawayo24's community. The views of users published on Bulawayo24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Bulawayo24. Bulawayo24 editors also reserve the right to edit or delete any and all comments received.

Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Is Tsvangirai's BIG TENT leaking?

Yes
28.4%
No
31.2%
Not bothered
40.4%
250

Comments

Latest Classifieds (Click Here For More)

News Updates

Email:

Latest News

Local car assemblies should get govt support - The recent statement ...

by Mukachana Hanyani | 30 September 2014 | 98 Views

Tshelanyemba Ex Students Association giving back to the community

by Tshelanyemba Ex Students Association | 30 September 2014 | 746 Views

Jonathan Moyo, Kasukuwere CIA gay gangsters - Video - ZANU-PF Chairper...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 2027 Views

MDC SA Welcomes SCA Ruling on the Rights of Asylum Seekers and Refugee...

by Kumbirai T Muchemwa, MDC SA Information and Publicity Secretary | 30 September 2014 | 1521 Views

Disabled couple blessed with triplets, appeals for assistance - A spe...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1764 Views

Woman demands her underwear in court

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 2847 Views

Woman exposes rapist hubby - A Nyamandlovu woman on the outskirts of B...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 2193 Views

Man produces cheating wife, lover pictures in court

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 3135 Views

Privates swell after tightening attempt

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 3107 Views

Frantic account holders break bank doors demanding cash

by Loveness Bepete | 30 September 2014 | 1993 Views

Ebola centre releases first survivors in Sierra Leone

by VOA | 30 September 2014 | 887 Views

Mat'land South records TB deaths - MATABELELAND South Province has rec...

by Marvelous Moyo | 30 September 2014 | 625 Views

Woman drags stranger to court over child maintenance

by Lethokuhle Moyo | 30 September 2014 | 1802 Views

'We should promote our Zimbabwean products,' says MDC-T MP - THE bus...

by Loveness Bepete | 30 September 2014 | 983 Views

Zim needs over 2 000 schools - THE country is operating with a deficit...

by Loveness Bepete | 30 September 2014 | 537 Views

Zhuwao's wife slaps Temba Mliswa - EMBATTLED Zanu-PF Mashonaland West ...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 2169 Views

Man accused of impregnating daughter (13) - A 36-year-old Chivi man ap...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1343 Views

Zimbabwe submits 2017 Afcon bid - Zimbabwe has decided to go it alone ...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1184 Views

Bulawayo councillors gagged over Egodini tender - Bulawayo's multi-mil...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1087 Views

Reduce roadblocks on highways - I concur with the idea of stopping tho...

by Concerned | 30 September 2014 | 1407 Views

Man hits wife with 10-month sex sanctions - A 41-year-old man has refu...

by Leonard Ncube | 30 September 2014 | 2307 Views

MDC-T protests, Mugabe beefs up security

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1791 Views

Air Zimbabwe passengers stranded again

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1350 Views

More Zimbabweans to be pushed out of formal jobs

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1213 Views

Grace Mugabe divides Zanu-PF

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1807 Views

Mliswa insists he will continue to receive money from US

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1070 Views

Zimbabwe economy heads South - Zimbabwe's economy continues to weaken ...

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1120 Views

Nissan Zimbabwe loses franchise

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 1451 Views

Econet, Zimra to square off at court

by Staff reporter | 30 September 2014 | 690 Views

Entertainment

Tuku Releases Lyrics for New Album Ahead of Launch

by Entertainment Reporter | 30 September 2014 | 612 Views

Mtukudzi to release new album - Music superstar Oliver "Tuku" Mtukudzi...

by Staff reporter | 29 September 2014 | 1320 Views

Parliament TV Channel in pipeline - PARLIAMENTARY debates might soon ...

by Staff reporter | 28 September 2014 | 1093 Views

Omkhula, the funniest guys I have ever seen - NOW that the Intwasa Ar...

by Christopher Mlalazi | 28 September 2014 | 2493 Views

Albert Nyathi collaborates with Shabalala Rhythm's Maqhinga Radebe - R...

by Bekezela Tshuma | 28 September 2014 | 838 Views

'Return of Mukanya' cancelled due to visa delays - THE much-awaited Th...

by Staff reporter | 27 September 2014 | 1718 Views

Thomas Mapfumo Leicester (UK) Show Cancelled

by Chimurenga Music Company | 27 September 2014 | 1484 Views

Mfundi Vundla writes out fired Generations cast members - GENERATIONS ...

by Bongani Ndlovu | 25 September 2014 | 5058 Views
iBlog

Protect Your Greatest Small Business Asset: Time

if your work week is way more than 40 hours, your smartphone is glued to your hand, and your to-do list is multiple pages of overdue tasks—you know how valuable every minute of your time is.your smartphone and tablet make doing business from anyw... Read More
Sergey 05 September 2014 ago

Those Behind Tb Joshua Watch Photo Proof!

when this couple (dave and angie) were indicted of being the masterminds behind tb joshua watch, the blog admins refuted it and denied any sort of connections with the couple, but that’s not what the facts portray as precisely every single one ... Read More
pointblank 13 July 2014 ago